This last month starts off with a bang on Saturday, as there are seven matchups involving teams ranked in the College Football Playoff rankings.
No. 7 Penn State travels to No. 24 Michigan State, No. 4 Clemson faces No. 20 N.C. State and No. 21 Stanford is on the road at No. 25 Washington State. Then there’s Bedlam between No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 11 Oklahoma State, which sets up a prime-time slate that features No. 19 LSU at No. 2 Alabama and No. 13 Virginia Tech at No. 10 Miami. No. 22 Arizona at No. 17 USC rounds out a jam-packed Saturday.
PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Those are the highlights on the schedule. How will the next set of rankings shake out? Here’s our Week 10 primer:
Heisman Watch
The winner of Bedlam will likely land a Heisman Trophy finalist. That’s what’s at stake between Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Here’s the tale of the tape:
Mayfield has led the Sooners to victories in Bedlam the last two years. He finished those games with a combined 30-of-44 passing for 468 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a chance to do what Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett did last week: leave a mark on the Heisman Trophy conversation. Remember, Mayfield beat Barrett head to head earlier this season.
Rudolph, meanwhile, played a role in the Cowboys’ last victory against the Sooners in 2014. He didn’t play much in 2015, and completed 11 of 25 passes for 186 yards in last year’s loss. This is a statement game for both quarterbacks, but more pressure is on Rudolph to deliver at home.
BEDLAM LEGACY: Mayfield | Rudolph
Coach on the spot
Ed Orgeron. LSU is a three-touchdown underdog against Alabama in a game that was generally considered the game of the year from about 2008-16, considering the rivalry between Nick Saban and Les Miles.
Alabama has wrested control of the series since winning the 2012 BCS championship game 21-0. That started a run of six straight victories by an average of 12.8 points per game. Four of those wins were decided by double-digit margins of victory.
Will the Tigers put their foot down and make this one a game? Or will they simply be another notch on Alabama’s SEC blowout tour, one in which they’ve covered three of four ridiculous spreads?
If that happens, then any momentum created under Orgeron in his first full season won’t feel real, at least not until the next meeting.
MORE: Bama No. 2? Tide knows that doesn’t matter
Upset alert
The first set of College Football Playoff rankings came out on Tuesday, and most of the arguments revolve around the top six teams. Those teams are the best bets to win out, but we all know the danger of penciling teams in. We already mentioned Oklahoma-Oklahoma State and Alabama-LSU. Those aren’t trap games.
What about the other four teams? Which one will be tricky?
No. 6 Ohio State at Iowa. It’s almost too easy to call, given the Buckeyes are coming off an emotional victory. But we’d be more inclined to believe it if it was at night.
No. 4 Clemson at N.C. State. This will be the closest game of the four. The Wolfpack can seize control of the ACC Atlantic. Remember, both of their losses were in nonconference play.
Wake Forest at No. 3 Notre Dame. The Demon Deacons lead the nation with 9.3 tackles for loss per game, but can they disrupt that Irish running game on the road?
South Carolina at No. 2 Georgia. This was a huge SEC game not too long ago, and it’s a chance for the Gamecocks to keep their SEC East hopes alive. This one will be closer than expected.
MORE: Top 25 games remaining in regular season
Over/under
Virginia Tech is a three-point favorite against Miami in the prime-time ACC Game of the Week, a battle that should determine the ACC Coastal Division winner.
Here is where the Hurricanes, who opened at No. 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, can earn some respect: They haven’t covered as favorites the last three weeks, and this is their first time as an underdog this season.
The Hokies have covered as favorites the last three weeks. We expect this to come down to the wire, and the winner will get its chance in the ACC championship game in Charlotte.
Think about it …
Imagine saying this three years — or even three months — ago. …
It’s November. Mark Richt has Miami undefeated and in the playoff hunt. Jimbo Fisher and Florida State are struggling to make a bowl game. Randy Shannon is the Gators’ head coach.
Only in Florida, right?
It’s a sign of the times when FSU-Florida or Clemson-FSU didn’t even make Sporting News’ top 25 games of November. Miami, FSU and Florida are 12-9 this season, and that’s taking into account the Hurricanes’ 7-0 record.
Did any Florida games make the list? UCF and South Florida and FIU vs. FAU.
That’s a testament to the jobs Scott Frost, Charlie Strong, Butch Davis and Lane Kiffin have done — the latter three in their first season. They’ve combined for a record of 24-6. Imagine saying that three months ago.
Will one of those four be the head coach at a certain in-state SEC program next season? We have no idea what we’ll be typing three months from now.
Like we said, only in Florida.
title: “College Football Week 10 Primer Heisman Watch Upset Picks Predictions And More” ShowToc: true date: “2023-01-02” author: “Kimberly Morris”
The biggest game is a SEC East clash between No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia (3:30 p.m., CBS). That battle of one-loss teams will serve as a College Football Playoff elimination game. The prime-time matchup between No. 15 SMU and No. 25 Memphis (7:30 p.m., ABC) has huge implications for the Group of 5 representative in the New Year’s Day Six.
MORE: 10 biggest November games
This is the last week before the first College Football Playoff rankings on Nov. 5, and the countdown is on for No. 1 LSU vs. No. 2 Alabama.
Every week, Sporting News will survey the landscape looking for Heisman contenders, coaches on the spot, upset alerts and other trends. With that in mind, get ready for Week 10:
Heisman watch
If you take one look at the latest Heisman Trophy odds, then it becomes clear the field is mostly set among a group that includes LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts and the Ohio State tandem of Justin Fields and Chase Young.
Who should you take a chance on outside of that? It’s a simple answer.
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence at 100/1. Lawrence has been over-analyzed this season because of eight interceptions, but he could be set up for a late run. Will he win it probably not? But let’s make a case.
Lawrence should breeze through the last six games, and he’s coming off his best game against Boston College (275 yards, 3 TDs). What if Alabama beats Burrow without Tagovailoa? What if Ohio State loses? Oklahoma already lost.
MORE: Herbstreit on Chase Young
Lawrence is still in the quarterback in the best position to be on an undefeated team at the end of the year, and that could get him in New York if he goes on a tear.
That’s worth putting a few dollars on at 100-to-1.
Coach on the spot
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly was put through the wringer this week after a 45-14 loss against Michigan in the final installment of that rivalry until 2033.
Paul Finebaum pitched Urban Meyer as the next coach, and Shelley Meyer defended Kelly. Notre Dame fans are stuck in between.
Yes, Kelly is coming off a 12-0 season and the Irish could still get to a New Year’s Day Six Bowl if they win 10 games this season. Notre Dame is a difficult job – if not the most-difficult job – in all of college football. Kelly isn’t all that different than Jim Harbaugh – the coach that beat him last week. Only Kelly has been on the big stage twice.
A win against Virginia Tech would quiet the noise, at least for a week. A loss against the Hokies, who are embarrassed at home by the Irish last season but are on a three-game win streak, would increase the chirping around Kelly ten-fold.
Upset alert
We didn’t pick an upset this week, mainly because of a poor track record through nine weeks. Seriously, at 2-11 against the spread on upset picks this season, we are hurting for upsets. Let’s look at the matchups between ranked teams to find a low-grade upset:
Florida covered against the spread in a win against Auburn and a loss against LSU, but the Gators can make it interesting against Georgia in that elimination game. It comes down to the turnover battle and whether Florida can slow down that running game. It could happen.
SMU travels to Memphis in prime-time shootout. The Mustangs average 43 points and 504.1 yards per game this season, and everything screams shootout here. SMU can pull this off.
Full disclosure: We picked Georgia and Memphis. These are merely suggestions.
Over/under
There are eight Power 5 teams left in the FBS, and five of those are teams are on a bye this week in No. 1 LSU (8-0), No. 2 Alabama (8-0), No. 3 Ohio State (8-0), No. 5 Penn State (8-0) and No. 10 Minnesota (8-0).
No. 12 Baylor (8-0) beat West Virginia 17-14, and No. 20 Appalachian State lost 24-21 to Georgia Southern. We looked at No. 4 Clemson (8-0) and No. 15 SMU (8-0).
Looking at the first College Football Playoff rankings since 2015, the number of unbeaten teams for the first set of rankings varies. Here is a look at how many teams were undefeated in those first rankings:
The truth is it varies, and the number is guaranteed to drop to seven Tigers and Crimson Tide and Gophers and Nittany Lions meet on Nov. 9.
As far as the Power 5 teams go, stay unbeaten and you will make the CFP.
Think about it …
Once the College Football Playoff rankings move, you are going to hear fans say, “The polls don’t matter!”
They matter when we measure resumes. How many Top 25 victories does a team have? How many top 10 victories? That’s how we measure resumes.
They matter because the Preseason Poll and the weekly Top 25 polls are fun. It’s fun to size up teams, and it’s what’s make college football unique.
That will be on display on Nov. 9 when matter when No. 1 LSU plays No. 2 Alabama in a Game of the Century. There is not a better regular-season event across any sport than a Game of the Century, which has happened just 23 times in the history of college football.
The winner gets to hold up a No. 1 – at least for a night, and every fan in attendance will remember that.
It wouldn’t be like that if we didn’t have the polls.
